By Catherine Dodge, Originally Published on Bloomberg

Barack Obama may lack a strong personal connection with Hispanics, but he gets good marks on issues those voters say matter most: health care, the Iraq war, education and jobs.

“I see a sunrise and a sunset,” said Republican Dwayne Chavez, a 43-year-old blood-bank technician from Aurora, Colorado, describing the differences between Illinois Senator Obama and his Republican rival, Senator John McCain of Arizona. “One with a future ahead of them, and the other in the twilight.”

While more than 60 percent of Hispanics say they support Obama, expanding that margin may be a decisive factor in the November election, when Latinos are likely to play a crucial role nationally and in battleground states such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Florida.

Yet when Latino voters in a focus group in Denver yesterday were asked about Obama’s persona — what it would be like to share potluck dinner, car pool or have him as a neighbor — there was a disconnect, with many pointing only to his intelligence and basketball skills.

`One-Dimensional’

“We’re seeing too much of a one-dimensional Obama,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the focus group for the Philadelphia-based Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania. “We are not seeing the human side.”

Hispanics “just don’t feel he’s reached out and touched people,” Hart said.

Of the 12 voters in the group, seven said they favored or were leaning toward Obama, three backed McCain, and two were undecided.

Nationwide, Hispanics are the biggest and fastest-growing minority group. The Census Bureau estimates they have about doubled in number since 1990, to more than 44 million.

President George W. Bush won 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004. McCain, who has a strong record with these voters because of his support for an immigration overhaul that offered a path to citizenship, is looking to match Bush’s success.

Troubling for McCain, 71, is that in the 2006 congressional elections, Republican candidates saw their support among Hispanics dip to 30 percent after their party derailed the immigration proposals and called for stepped-up border security.

3-to-1 Margin

A poll of registered Latino voters released last month by the Washington-based Pew Hispanic Center showed they favored Obama over McCain by a margin of almost 3-to-1. Obama, 47, is perceived as best able to handle the issues of greatest concern to Hispanics: jobs, health care, education, immigration and cost of living.

Democrat Paloma Gamarra, 34, a single mother and data analyst from Boulder, Colorado, said Obama is in touch with the concerns of Hispanics.

“He was raised by a single mother,” she said. “He knows our struggles.”

If past trends hold, the Pew Hispanic Center estimated that Latinos, who comprise 9 percent of the electorate, would make up only about 6.5 percent of voters in November. There are indications, however, that participation will increase. Fifty- six percent of registered Latinos voted in the primaries, compared with 47 percent in 2004.

Battleground States

The concentration of Hispanics in battleground states such as Colorado, where they account for 12 percent of the vote, makes them a crucial target. In New Mexico, about 40 percent of eligible voters are Latino; they account for 13 percent of the electorate in Nevada and about 14 percent in Florida.

To capture these voters, the Obama campaign announced a $20 million Hispanic voter-mobilization effort in July.

“Hispanic voters are one of the great untapped resources in electoral politics,” said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Both parties “are going to be very cognizant of attracting and keeping these voters.”

Because Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada are battlegrounds and Democrats have increased registration numbers overall, “this is probably your best chance in a long time to see Latino voters be a critical factor in the outcome,” said Eric Juenke, a political scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

McCain Opportunity

Still, the lack of personal connection with Obama may give McCain an opportunity to prevent the Democrats from widening their margin of support with Hispanics, and allow the Republican to match Bush’s 40 percent support.

Even while most Latinos in the focus group favored Obama, many said Americans wouldn’t elect a black president; they also said they were worried about an assassination attempt.

“There are too many closed-minded people,” said Democrat Alex Moreno, 36, of Arvada, Colorado. “They are just going to say `No, we are not going to have a black president.”’

Obama’s choice of running-mate, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, was praised by the participants in the focus group. While running for the Democratic nomination this year, Biden, 65, had questioned Obama’s readiness to be president.

The Biden selection shows Obama is “open to bringing in people who don’t necessarily agree with him,” said Democrat Carlos Gomez, 37 of Littleton, Colorado.

The focus-group voters, while praising McCain’s patriotism and experience, expressed concerns about his age.

“This guy is already forgetting things,” Moreno said.

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