by Diane Francis, National Post

The endorsement of Colin Powell is a huge gain for Obama, especially in swing states like Virginia or Missouri where there is a huge presence of military personnel and their families.

But the motherlode is the Hispanic vote in the United States, estimated to represent one out of every eight in the next election. So much depends on where Hispanics stand. To gauge their support in the Nov. 4 election, I interviewed Alberto Vourvoulias-Bush, Executive Editor of El Diario/La Prensa located in Brooklyn, New York which is the fastest-growing Spanish-language daily in the U.S.
George Bush was able to garner 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004 but that is no longer the case.

Here are Mr. Vouvoulias-Bush’s comments by email to me last week:
“The Hispanic vote looks like it is running 2 to 1 for Obama. This varies depending on the demographic and the region. Obama does best with younger Latino voters and Hispanics in the Northeast and mid-west. Obama’s top issues are also those listed as most important by Hispanic voters: the economy and the war in Iraq (the third being immigration reform),” he wrote.

“McCain, on the other hand, does very well with the Cuban vote in South Florida, where his hardline on relations with Cuba strikes a chord.”

Obama wins support
He said that Bush’s support, and that for Republicans this time, has collapsed.

“Historically, Latino voters have tended to vote for Democrats by 2 to 1. The exception to this was George W. Bush, who won a far larger percentage of Hispanic votes than any other Republican – close to 40%. McCain’s challenge is to try to hold on to that gain. To his advantage is the good will he generated by being a proponent of immigration reform. To his disadvantage is the ill will he created by backing down and disavowing his own bill during the primaries,” he wrote.
The support for Obama by New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson has been critical to this shift, although it is not the sole reason, he added.
“Bill Richardson is a well liked and respected politician – but he doesn’t have a national following (as the primaries showed). If Richardson can deliver his own state to Obama – it is a critical battleground – he will have played a tremendous role in the election. All the other top Latino politicians – on both sides of the aisle, from Antonio Villaraigosa to Mel Martinez – tend to have more local than national sway.”

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