Up next: A Latino president?

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Up next: A Latino president?

Posted on 10 November 2009 by oscar

From: SGVTribune.com

One year ago, 53 percent of voters in the country went to the polls and elected the nation’s first black president, Barack Obama.

Now that that barrier has been broken, the question begs, who will be the nation’s first Latino president? And how soon can the country anticipate another historic swearing in?

“The fact that a person of color has been elected gives other minority groups a reasonable amount of hope that in the not too distant future, somebody who looks like them, sounds like them, might be a successful candidate,” said Jaime Regalado, executive director of Cal State L.A.’s institute of public affairs and an expert in race relations.

“It does open doors both symbolically and in real ways. If many whites,

Democrats, Independents, supported Obama’s candidacy, then other groups who have been left out historically feel a ray of hope,” he added.
In recent years, names such as New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a Democrat and an early presidential candidate in 2008, Democrat Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Clinton Administration HUD Secretary Henry Cisneros were considered potentials. Though not everyone has written them off, many experts are turning to the next generation of politicians for potential candidates to make history.

“Those who we might have thought of as potential candidates - Villaraigosa, Richardson, Cisneros - they all have their crosses to bear, legal and otherwise,” Regalado said.

“We just don’t see the person yet,” he said. “But it doesn’t mean that person won’t pop up. It all depends on what happens in mid-term elections, who wins governorships.”
Tested candidates

If the traditional presidential trajectory of Senate, governor, or high-level military holds up, only a handful of Latinos are an election away from the post, according to Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials

He points to Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar, a Democrat whom Colorado voters elected as state Attorney General and to the Senate, and New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, a Democrat elected to the Senate in 2006.

“We need individuals who are tested on the campaign trail, demonstrated, crossover candidates who have run statewide or have run in jurisdictions where Latinos are not the majority of the population,” Vargas said.

“You need that kind of stature, you need to be governor, senator, to have the visibility … the national network … the fundraising.”

Vargas, Regalado, and others said that more than likely the first Latino president is someone who is sitting in a city council or state assembly seat somewhere.

“It’s kind of a funny question. Thinking about Barack Obama, if someone had asked me eight years ago if he would be the first black president, I would have said no way. Eight years ago he lost to Bobby Rush for Congress. It just goes to show, predictions are hard to make,” said Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Lakewood. “Someone is on a super promising track, and then something happens to derail them. The someone who is relatively unknown suddenly finds a path.”

Possibilities abound. There is Republican Marco Rubio, former Florida House Speaker, who is vying for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez earlier this year.

There is Rafael Anchia, a Democratic member of the Texas House of Representatives that Texas Monthly predicted would be state governor by 2018.

There is Julian Castro, the 35-year-old mayor of San Antonio, who, like Obama, went to Harvard Law School.

“He seems to have an unremitting ambition to make it in politics,” said Jillian Medeiros, assistant professor at the University of New Mexico and an expert in race, ethnicity and Latino politics.

And in California there are a multitude of “bright young people in the state assembly and senate,” Regalado said.

Because of the state’s terms limits, the have limited time to prove themselves. So some of the most ambitious among them are vying for the Assembly speaker post, and that could serve as a launching pad, Regalado said.

“Alex Padilla, Felipe Fuentes, Kevin de Leon - it can be tough to pull them apart. They need something to make them stand apart,” he said.

“Within the next five to 10 years, there is going to be an enormous surge of Latinos that are going to be breaking the ceiling, from both sides of the aisle,” said Luis Alvarado, chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly of Greater Los Angeles.

And as the pool grows, the likelihood increases of a woman being the history-maker, Sanchez said.

“Latinas have been catching up on school boards, city councils, to some extent state assemblies and state senates,” Regalado said.

It may be that by 2016 a viable Latino candidate will have emerged, according to Raphael Sonenshein, a professor of political science at Cal State Fullerton and an expert in race relations.

“That is a lifetime from now,” he said.

But Supervisor Gloria Molina worries the country isn’t ready to elect a Latino president. A successful Latino candidate will have to be twice as qualified as other candidates because of racial biases that still exist, she said.

“Unfortunately when you are the first you have to be the very best … you have to set the standard and the bar is very high,” Molina said.

“A lot will depend on our society’s ability to give them a fair chance. If our society can go beyond seeing us as only a gardener or a maid, or someone who doesn’t have all the attributes of a fine American.”

Sonenshein also sees cultural obstacles.

“Whenever a new group comes for an office of that significance, it excites people and it scares people,” Sonenshein said. “The symbolism of you running gets a lot of people excited in your group … but also people are quick to think you are a radical and only care about your own group.”

Shear numbers

The U.S. Census projects that by 2050 the Latino population in the country will be 102.6 million - 24 percent of the nation’s total population. Some put the projections even higher.

Although the demographics are in their favor, being Latino alone won’t get those votes.

“Keep in mind, Latinos don’t necessarily vote for someone with a Latino surname,” Vargas said.

Vargas cited the recall of Gray Davis, when Latinos lent their support to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger over Cruz Bustamante.

And many Latinos chose Hillary Clinton over Bill Richardson early in the primaries before the 2008 election.

But Molina said the eagerness of Latinos to see the historic barrier broken would carry considerable weight among many Latinos.

“To what extent depends on what kind of Latino you are… I think for the majority of us who know what it is like to be set apart, even as a professional, I think there is a tremendous amount of pride to see a Latino candidate. It gives us an affirmation we need,” Molina said.

Sanchez agrees. She said in the same way the Obama inspired a new generation of voters to go to the polls, so too would a Latino candidate among Latinos.

“That political muscle is a big factor in seeing the first Hispanic president in the not too distant future,” she said.

Latino enough?

Just as some have asked whether Obama is black enough, the same questions would likely rise about a Latino presidential candidate.

Sanchez said a successful candidate would likely have to speak Spanish and would win favor if they came from immigrant parents.

“That is a powerful story that resonates with all immigrants… it a story of hope, of hard work. A child of immigrant parents sees the opportunity of the country and appreciates the opportunity of the country in ways native borns don’t always,” Sanchez said. “They see the best of the country… and that is a powerful story.”

But Regalado said to be successful, a candidate couldn’t appear to be an immigrant, but rather somebody who has “sowed his or her root in Americana.”

He or she must have broad appeal among non-Latinos and shouldn’t appear too tied to immigrant rights, Regalado said.

The immigration debate will likely be a key litmus test for any Latino candidate.

Molina said her ideal candidate would be willing to tackle it head on, Molina said, without being confrontational.

“It’s the elephant in the room. Too many people are dismissing it right now, saying, we’ll get to it later,” Molina said.

Jorge-Mario Cabrera Valladares, spokesman for the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles (CHIRLA) also said a Latino would do well to prioritize Latin American foreign policy.

Because many of the nation’s immigrants come from Latin America, a presidential candidate who understands how the world economy, geopolitics and U.S. policy affects those countries would be embraced by many Latinos, he said.

“We need a president who sees Latin America as a partner, not as a bastard son or an enemy,” he said.

Republican chances

Although Latinos traditionally align with Democrats, could the first Latino president be a Republican?

“Though it may not seem like it, there are changes happening in the Republican party that will allow Latinos to prosper in the party,” Alvarado said without providing specifics, only speaking of party infighting. “It is just a matter of time. Demographics are changing and those demographics cannot be denied representation,” he said.

Alvarado said much is being made in Latino Republican circles about George P. Bush - the son of Jeb Bush and his Mexico-born wife - recently forming a PAC.

He also points to Florida’s Rubio.

“And in Texas there are many well established Republican Latino leaders who have demonstrated capacity,” Alvarado said. “In California we are still developing those leaders.”

“There are opportunities on both sides of the aisle,” Vargas said. “Latino voters have shown they will cross party lines.”

George W. Bush got 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004, Vargas said. But John McCain mustered only 22 percent four years later.

“That is the power of the swing vote. With the Latino vote up for grabs, both parties have to pay attention,” Vargas said. “There will never be another race for president where the candidate won’t have to have a Latino strategy to win.”

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Categorized | Latino Community, Latino News, Politics, Uncategorized

Up next: A Latino president?

Posted on 10 November 2009 by oscar

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