Via CNSNews.com

A draft copy of the GOP platform, which was obtained by CNSNews.com on Wednesday, says “We oppose amnesty” for illegal immigrants.

But Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the presumptive presidential nominee for the Republican Party, has been a leading proponent in Congress for giving illegal aliens a “pathway to citizenship.”

The GOP platform is being written in Minneapolis this week in preparation for the Republican National Convention, scheduled for early September.

“It [the rule of law] does not mean driver’s licenses for illegal aliens, nor does it mean that states should be allowed to flout the federal law barring them from giving in-state tuition rates to illegal aliens. We oppose amnesty,” the draft says.

“Amnesty has to be an important part of [any immigration solution] because there are people who have lived in this country for 20, 30 or 40 years, who have raised children here and pay taxes here and are not citizens. That has to be a component of it,” McCain reportedly told the Tucson Citizen on May 29, 2003.

In June, McCain told the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials that comprehensive immigration reform is his “top priority — yesterday, today and tomorrow.”

In 2006, McCain worked with Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) to ensure passage in the Senate of a “comprehensive” immigration reform bill that would have given illegal aliens a path to citizenship while allowing 200,000 new “guest workers’ to enter the country each year.

Sources in Minneapolis told CNSNews.com that the GOP platform should be completed by Wednesday but it will not be officially released until Monday.

In other news, the Boston Globe reported that the Republican platform will not include a call to drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. That’s another area where Republicans differ with McCain, who opposes drilling in ANWR.

According to the Globe, some platform committee members said they’ll try to bring McCain around to their way of thinking after he’s elected president.

The platform does endorse expanded domestic oil drilling in general.

Popularity: 2% [?]

Former San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros, an ardent Hillary Rodham Clinton backer in the primary fight, says he will campaign for Barack Obama, including in Nevada, New Mexico and other states with blocs of Hispanic voters.

Mr. Cisneros, the former housing secretary under President Bill Clinton, said Mr. Obama will do well among Hispanics.

“As long as Obama makes his agenda visible to Latinos, they will vote for him,” he said. “Latinos will see a clear distinction between the Democratic and Republican strategies. “

Popularity: 3% [?]

By STEVEN K. PAULSON – AP

DENVER (AP) — Hispanics should not have to live in fear of raids by immigration agents, Michelle Obama told a Hispanic caucus to the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday.

Her husband, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, wants to reform immigration policies and provide illegal immigrants a path to citizenship, she said.

“We would have an immigration policy that brings 12 million people out of the shadows,” she told cheering caucus members who shouted “Yes we can” in Spanish.

Hispanics are often the first to suffer in an economic downturn and the last to benefit during a recovery, she said.

She told the caucus that blacks and Hispanics share an interest in providing access to affordable health care, education and economic opportunities for all Americans, not just a select few.

“We all know our country’s journey toward equality isn’t finished yet. We have more work to do,” she said.

Hispanics could play a key role in the November election, especially in the West where the Obama campaign has been courting them.

Researchers say that although Hispanics make up about 15 percent of the U.S. population, about 9 percent of eligible Hispanic voters are registered to vote and only 6.5 percent do vote, a statistic Republicans and Democrats are trying to change.

Raymond Pedraza, a member of the Nevada Democratic Party’s executive committee, said Hispanics are flocking to Obama because they feel they share a similar heritage of economic and civil rights struggles.

“He’s our story. He has walked in our shoes and he has walked our mile,” Pedraza said.

Popularity: 5% [?]

Originally Published in The Dallas Morning News

Seventeen million strong, Hispanics have become a critical voting bloc for national and local races.

And as the contest between Barack Obama and John McCain tightens, the campaign to woo these voters is raging like never before.

For Democrats, who have historically enjoyed the lion’s share of Hispanic support, keeping those voters is more critical, and trickier, for November.

Polls show Barack Obama leads John McCain with Hispanic voters, including those in key battleground states in the southwest.

But the lingering bruise felt by Hillary Rodham Clinton supporters have some Democrats worried that the New York senator’s Hispanic supporters will either stay home or vote for Mr. McCain.

What’s more, Mr. McCain, who hails from Arizona, has aggressively courted Hispanic voters and gained points with them when he co-sponsored a bill that included a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

Even so, Los Angles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, one of Mrs. Clinton’s national campaign co-chairs, said Mr. Obama was still poised to win over Hispanics.

“The overwhelming support Latinos gave to Hillary Clinton was a vote for Hillary Clinton and not a vote against Barack Obama,” Mr. Villaraigosa told The Dallas Morning News. “In three national polls, Barack Obama is leading McCain by an average of 35 points, so Latinos are getting behind Barack Obama.”

But Mr. Villaraigosa said there was still work to be done.

“Our job is to make sure we increase that margin and increase the number of voters who turn out,” he said. “If they vote in the 70th percentile, Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.”

But some Hispanic voters want to hear more from Mr. Obama.

“It would definitely help if Obama reached out to our communities and if the Hispanic leadership brought him with them and stood by him,” said Dolly Elizondo, chairwoman of the Hidalgo County Democratic Party. “There are people who still want to hear it from Hillary Clinton. Then they need to hear from Obama.”

Mrs. Clinton addressed the Hispanic Caucus on Monday and urged delegates to strongly support Mr. Obama.

Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee is ramping up its Hispanic outreach. Officials have announced that they will spend $20 million to register Hispanic voters and lure them to the polls in several southwestern states and Florida. That’s on top of Mr. Obama’s Hispanic outreach.

At the Democratic convention, there were plenty of workshops, luncheons and parties where Hispanic voters reflected on their growing influence.

A report released at the convention predicts Hispanic voters could generate 46 electoral votes. About 9.2 million Hispanics are expected to vote, up 20 percent from 2004.

“This election demonstrates that Latino voters have become a permanent element of the political landscape,” said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials. “You don’t need the majority of the vote. You just need a significant share.”

The mobilization for Hispanic voters could pay dividends for down-ballot candidates.

In Texas, state Rep. Rick Noriega is hoping for a big Hispanic turnout to boost his chances against incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

Locally, Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez wants to head off Republican challenger Lowell Cannaday with an increased Hispanic turnout.

“We saw what aggressive campaigning in the Latino community could produce this spring,” said state Rep. Roberto Alonzo, D-Dallas. “If it continues through November, Texas Democrats could be in for something big.”

Popularity: 25% [?]

Far from center stage, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa spent the first day of the Democratic National Convention straining to speak over clattering dishes as he addressed a breakfast meeting Monday of the Florida delegation.

On the second day, Villaraigosa remained on the sidelines, as early Barack Obama supporters like Federico Peña, the former mayor of Denver, and Rep. Xavier Becerra of Los Angeles took the stage.

With no prime-time speaking slot or other major role at the four-day convention, one of the nation’s best-known Latino elected officials has been relegated mostly to side events. He has filled the void by feverishly working crowds and the news media and appearing on cable’s MSNBC and Fox News. He spoke to delegates from New Hampshire on Sunday, Florida on Monday and Minnesota and Texas on Tuesday.

All the while, Villaraigosa has been careful to brush aside any speculation that he was snubbed by Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama as retribution for his aggressive campaigning for rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton during the primaries.

“I’ve been asked that question 100 times,” said Villaraigosa, who spoke at the Democratic convention in 2004 when he was a city councilman. “I’m going to Pueblo, Colo., this week to campaign for Barack Obama, and I’m going to campaign as hard for his candidacy” as he did for Clinton.

“It matters to Angelenos who is in the White House. If I have a voice to add to this debate, I intend to use it.”

Still, some of Villaraigosa’s close political allies said that, as mayor of the nation’s second-largest city, he had felt slighted. Hoping to correct that perception, one of Obama’s top advisors, Valerie Jarrett, is scheduled to met privately with Villaraigosa on Thursday.

“The purpose of the meeting is to talk about the significant role that Villaraigosa will play in the campaign as it moves from now forward,” said Kerman Maddox, who is close to the mayor and serves as a member of the Obama national finance committee. “The Obama campaign wants to make sure that he plays a crucial role in the campaign. They want to reassure the mayor that the Obama campaign appreciates everything he is doing.”

Villaraigosa was one of Clinton’s most tireless and effective advocates on the primary campaign trail, a strong voice in states where Latino voters were critical. Clinton credited Villaraigosa with helping deliver a popular victory in Nevada’s Democratic caucuses in January, after which questions grew about Obama’s ability to win over Latinos. Another public thank-you came when Clinton spoke Tuesday night — the mayor sat just behind Bill Clinton in the convention hall.

Villaraigosa made a swift pivot to Obama when the primary season ended, citing the Illinois senator’s inspiring message and the perils of another Republican administration in the White House. In July, the Obama campaign asked Villaraigosa to introduce him at a convention of Latino civil rights leaders, and met with him and three other Latino supporters of Clinton at the National Conference of Mayors in Miami.

But vestiges of Villaraigosa’s loyalty to Clinton linger, even when he tried to put a positive spin on the outcome of the divisive primary in his address to the Florida delegation Monday.

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Popularity: 27% [?]

If Barack Obama is really going to redraw the political map this year, this isn’t a bad place to start. Colorado’s nine electoral votes have gone blue in only one of the last 10 elections, but they look within Obama’s reach now according to recent polling. The same goes for nearby Nevada (with five votes) and New Mexico (also five). If John McCain weren’t from Arizona, its 10 votes might be up for grabs, too.

Latino voters are a big reason that Democrats may find new electoral power in the West. In all the Southwestern states Obama is targeting, Latinos make up at least 12 percent of the eligible voters; in New Mexico, the Hispanic vote is a staggering 37 percent of the electorate. (Latinos are now the largest and fastest-growing minority group in the country, making up an estimated 15 percent of the U.S. population, though only about 9 percent of the electorate.) Recent polls show Obama beating McCain nearly 2 to 1 among Latinos. Obama’s chances of winning, if he can’t carry the Southern states and can’t turn Ohio blue again, could well come down to how successful his outreach to the Latino community is here and in neighboring states.

No wonder the Democratic convention kicked off Monday with an invocation by Polly Baca, a former Colorado state senator and an activist on behalf of Latinos, then jumped to remarks by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus leaders, before delegates headed off to (among other parties) a massive gala sponsored by all the major Latino civil rights groups later in the evening. Obama’s campaign is running radio, TV, print and online ads in Spanish, opening field offices to reach out to Latino voters, and sending prominent surrogates like New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson to talk to Latino communities. “The Democratic Party has woken up to this emerging and critical opportunity,” said Simon Rosenberg, head of NDN, a progressive think tank that’s been pushing Democrats to look West for years.

In a focus group here Monday morning for the Annenberg Center for Public Policy, run by Democratic pollster Peter Hart, the nature of that opportunity was on display. Annenberg convened 12 Latino voters from around the Denver area and asked them to speak about the election for two hours. Of the 12, five supported Obama, three supported John McCain, and four were undecided — but two of the undecided voters said they were leaning toward Obama. The issues they said were important to them were the same issues that pollsters are finding matter to most Americans: ending the war in Iraq, turning around the economy, and improving access to affordable healthcare.

Hillary Clinton pounded Obama among Latino voters in primary after primary all spring, and some pundits wondered then if tension between blacks and Hispanics was a reason. But the voters in the focus group — even the McCain supporters — said they weren’t worried at all that Obama would favor one racial group over another. “What I do see with Obama is that from his background — minority, black, blah blah blah, everything — I can relate to that,” said Vaneska Mayor, 33, a chemist from Thornton, Colo., who grew up in Puerto Rico. “Because I’m not rich, and I’m a woman, and I’m a Latina, and my mom forced me to learn English even though I didn’t want to, so I could have a better life.”

For many of the voters, the biggest change an Obama presidency might bring about would be in the country’s racial attitudes. “We have always been governed by older white people,” said Paloma Gamarra, 34, a data analyst from Boulder, who was for Obama. Electing Obama would be “just like electing somebody who’s poor like me or had to clean restrooms like me.”

The debate over immigration reform in the last few years had left these voters a little, well, bitter, as Obama might say. “I think politicians tend to use us [Latinos] as a card for them to kind of stick out there,” said Alex Moreno, 36, a window washer from Arvada, Colo.

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Popularity: 28% [?]

Originally Published at CNN

As the U.S. presidential elections draw closer, voting activists are bracing themselves for an onslaught of online dirty tricks and misinformation campaigns designed to deceive and disenfranchise voters.

Political dirty tricks and misinformation close to election time are, of course, nothing new. But experts say they are about to get nastier and more prevalent because of the ease of disseminating them online.

They cite young people, who are more likely to seek out information online, as being particularly vulnerable to these attacks.

Low-income and minority voters have been vulnerable in the past to nefarious tactics used to prevent them from exercising their right to vote.

This was a common feature of the 2006 election, when 14,000 Latino voters in Orange County, California, received letters telling them it was illegal for immigrants to vote.

Lillie Coney, associate director at the Electronic Privacy Information Center, told of a variety of online tactics that are being used by would-be election saboteurs, determined to skew election results in their party’s favor.

“We’re seeing all sorts of ways in which these people can put out the message to first-time voters and those who are unsure of their voting rights. They are replacing the tactics we saw in previous election cycles,” she said.

In the past, political gamesmanship relied on traditional methods like telephone calls, direct mail and leafleting.

During the U.S. 2004 and 2006 elections, flyers were distributed that falsely claimed that voters could be disqualified from voting in elections if they had parking violations, late rent or even outstanding child support payments.

Tough action has since been taken in the United States with the introduction of a Deceptive Practices and Voter Intimidation Prevention Act, which makes it a federal crime to “knowingly provide false information with the intent to disenfranchise another person in a federal election.” Violators face up to five years in prison and fines of up to $250,000.

But tricksters have moved online because of the low probability of being caught, and also because anti-spam laws and “no-call” lists exempt political messages.

The timing of misinformation efforts is vital as the bad information needs to be sent relatively close to election day, with enough time to reach voters but not enough for opponents to employ countermeasures.

One of the most popular deceptive campaign methods is using Voice Over IP calls or “robocalls,” Coney said.

These are popular because the calls don’t come from a central location, so tracing the perpetrator is much harder. The number of calls that can be made is practically limitless.

What’s more, Internet phone calls are not regulated, making it relatively easy for someone to misinform a huge number of people.

For example, during the primary season, anonymous robocalls were made during North Carolina that were designed to give voters the false impression that they were not already registered to vote.

Many of the voters who received those calls were black.

Voters in 11 states complained about similarly deceptive calls suggesting that they were linked to a national strategy of voter deception.

The speed of online communications allows scammers to be precise in reaching their targets, especially by taking advantage of existing Internet scams, like phishing and pharming.

Phishing typically involves fraudulent bulk e-mail messages that guide recipients to legitimate-looking but fake Web sites and try to get them to supply personal information.

Pharming secretly redirects traffic from a Web site to a different site altogether, even though the browser seems to be displaying the Web address that Internet users wanted to visit.

A hacker was able to redirect visitors to Barack Obama’s Community Blogs site to Hillary Clinton’s Web site in April by using similar methods.

“By early November, we’re expecting spam emails to be sent giving the wrong location for a polling station, or, incorrect details about who has the right to vote,” Coney said.

“There’s even a Web site that’s offering to register voters for $9.95. Of course, it doesn’t cost anything to vote,” Coney added.

Certainly, most Internet users are savvy about phishing emails and don’t necessarily fall for them, but it is the mass reach that has activists like Coney worried.

In a tight race where every voter counts, the implications are serious.

Another weapon in the arsenal of online political scammers is “typo squatting,” where people not connected to campaigns buy rights to a candidate’s Internet address, with their name misspelled, using them to steal and potentially misinform supporters.

These people are virtually impossible to trace, especially if they use sites like DomainsByProxy, which specialize in maintaining the anonymity of Web site owners.

Oliver Friedrichs, director of Symantec’s security response unit, said his company found that 47 out of 160 variations on www.barackobama.com were being “typo-squatted.”

“You can guarantee that more of these will become common in future elections,” Friedrichs said.

However, in the same way that saboteurs are using the Internet to spread misinformation and create voter confusion, there are numerous examples that highlight the positive ways the Internet is being used as a great democratic tool.

The Obama campaign has certainly exploited Internet social networking tools to the full. His success in primaries and caucuses across the country, as well as in raising unprecedented amounts of money through small donations, can be traced back to the Internet.

A group of University of Washington students has created a Facebook application called Your Revolution, where anyone with a Facebook account can join the cause and register to vote.

The application takes advantage of Washington and Arizona’s new online voter registration legislation.

Andrew Rasiej, founder of the Personal Democracy Forum, argues that online voter-generated activism has become a full-fledged political force and one that can no longer be ignored.

“It’s really rebalancing the power, not into the hands of the special interests and those with money but into the hands of citizens who actually now can organize themselves,” he said.

“Let me just add that organized minorities are always more powerful than disorganized majorities.”

Popularity: 26% [?]

DENVER, Co—Before the opening gavel hit the sounding block at the convention’s opening ceremony, Democratic leaders and supporters here did not waste time and took the immigration issues to stage yesterday afternoon.

The Democrats described the current immigration system as dysfunctional, affecting the economy and moral fiber of American society, and reiterated that the Democratic Party strongly recommends a comprehensive immigration reform law to fix the problem.

“Everything with our current immigration enforcement is a failure, starting with ICE,” Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) said in an almost three-hour immigration panel discussion at downton Hilton Inn. “Roughly 30,000 ICE workers lack qualifications.”

Lofgren lashed out at the government for appointing ICE Assistant Secretary Julie Myers, who had no previous experience relating to immigration. “At 46, after working for the Department of Commerce and at the Office of Independent Counsel under Kenneth Starr, the government asked her to do this job. We need to have qualified individuals to handle immigration issues.”

With a rising number of skilled immigrants, U.S. military service personnel being denied legal status, as well as immigrant families who have been entangled in complicated legal bouts and continue to be separated, Lofgren added that the administrative and legal aspects of immigration are clearly discombobulated.

“What kind of system is this when we want a sailor who served for our country to just remain in Iraq because he has a conditional immigration status and is facing a 3- or 10-year ban?” she said. “Detainees have been denied proper healthcare and we declined due process.”

She illustrated the massive ICE arrest of Latino workers in Postville, Iowa, where they were not only denied legal representation, but also charged with robbery. Lofgren alleged that even the judge there scripted the workers’ pleas. She also claimed that about 70 percent of undocumented immigrants in the country are highly skilled and could certainly bolster the U.S. economy.

Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, admitted that immigration is the biggest challenge for Democrats.

“Republicans always say that we have good laws with bad people violating these good laws. And because the government cannot deport millions of people, what they do is to make people’s lives miserable so they will leave on their own,” Sharry said. “The New York Times calls it a ‘strategic misery.’ We call it non-violent cleansing. This is what they (Republicans) do to try to take control of the system.”

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Popularity: 29% [?]

Sensing an opening because of conservatives’ hardline approach to immigration, Democrats are increasing their efforts to reach Hispanic voters in key Southwest states, a move they hope will help propel Sen. Barack Obama to the White House.

Republicans, however, aren’t ceding the Hispanic vote. Arizona Sen. John McCain, who will accept the Republican presidential nomination next week, is also aggressively courting Hispanic voters, looking to build upon inroads into the voting bloc made by President Bush - a former Texas governor - and his brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

However, Democrats think that Bush’s low approval ratings, the weakening of the Republican brand nationally, and a perception among some Hispanics that McCain has flip-flopped on comprehensive immigration reform, improve Obama’s chances with Hispanics in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. Hispanics make up about 12 percent of eligible voters in the Southwest - 37 percent in New Mexico.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who’s Hispanic, predicted at the Democratic convention Tuesday that Obama will get more than 70 percent of the national Hispanic vote, helped by big numbers in the Southwest.

To achieve their goals, Democrats and allied groups are bolstering their Hispanic voter-registration drives and increasing their radio and television advertising aimed at Hispanics, according to the Western Majority Project, a group formed by Democratic strategists to build upon electoral gains the party has made in the Southwest.

“What I’m seeing is a highly motivated and excited electorate eager to have their voices heard,” said Eliseo Medina, executive vice president of the Service Employees International Union, which endorsed Obama. “Whether we come from Mexico, El Salvador, from Argentina, Panama or Puerto Rico, we all are united and understand that this election is about us, it’s about our families, our communities, and this is our chance to be heard.”

A survey done for the Western Majority Project found that Obama holds an overall 64 percent to 25 percent lead over McCain among Hispanics in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado.

A recent poll by the non-partisan Pew Research Center found Obama leading McCain among Hispanics nationally by 66 percent to 23 percent, which seems to answer questions raised during the Democratic primaries about whether Obama could attract Hispanic votes.

But several Hispanic officials and organizations warn that Obama shouldn’t consider heavy Hispanic support a lock.

“The big, big question for Latino voters is not whether Democrats will get the Latino votes. The question is what the margin will be,” said Cecilia Munoz, senior vice president for policy for the National Council of La Raza, a nonprofit Hispanic organization that fights poverty and discrimination. “If McCain gets 40 percent (of the Latino vote), he can win. And Senator McCain, though he may be behind, is not giving up and is running very hard in the Latino community.”

McCain is looking to follow in Bush’s footsteps with Hispanic voters. The president captured between 32 percent and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004; analysts’ estimates vary. Bush’s Texas ties and understanding of Hispanic culture attracted voters.

McCain’s Arizona offers a sizeable Hispanic population, but he faces a challenge with Hispanic voters because of a perceived shift in his position on immigration. He helped craft a failed immigration-overhaul bill that included a guest-worker program that critics blasted as amnesty for illegal immigrants, but this year on the campaign trail he stressed securing America’s borders.

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Popularity: 27% [?]

By Catherine Dodge, Originally Published on Bloomberg

Barack Obama may lack a strong personal connection with Hispanics, but he gets good marks on issues those voters say matter most: health care, the Iraq war, education and jobs.

“I see a sunrise and a sunset,” said Republican Dwayne Chavez, a 43-year-old blood-bank technician from Aurora, Colorado, describing the differences between Illinois Senator Obama and his Republican rival, Senator John McCain of Arizona. “One with a future ahead of them, and the other in the twilight.”

While more than 60 percent of Hispanics say they support Obama, expanding that margin may be a decisive factor in the November election, when Latinos are likely to play a crucial role nationally and in battleground states such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Florida.

Yet when Latino voters in a focus group in Denver yesterday were asked about Obama’s persona — what it would be like to share potluck dinner, car pool or have him as a neighbor — there was a disconnect, with many pointing only to his intelligence and basketball skills.

`One-Dimensional’

“We’re seeing too much of a one-dimensional Obama,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the focus group for the Philadelphia-based Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania. “We are not seeing the human side.”

Hispanics “just don’t feel he’s reached out and touched people,” Hart said.

Of the 12 voters in the group, seven said they favored or were leaning toward Obama, three backed McCain, and two were undecided.

Nationwide, Hispanics are the biggest and fastest-growing minority group. The Census Bureau estimates they have about doubled in number since 1990, to more than 44 million.

President George W. Bush won 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004. McCain, who has a strong record with these voters because of his support for an immigration overhaul that offered a path to citizenship, is looking to match Bush’s success.

Troubling for McCain, 71, is that in the 2006 congressional elections, Republican candidates saw their support among Hispanics dip to 30 percent after their party derailed the immigration proposals and called for stepped-up border security.

3-to-1 Margin

A poll of registered Latino voters released last month by the Washington-based Pew Hispanic Center showed they favored Obama over McCain by a margin of almost 3-to-1. Obama, 47, is perceived as best able to handle the issues of greatest concern to Hispanics: jobs, health care, education, immigration and cost of living.

Democrat Paloma Gamarra, 34, a single mother and data analyst from Boulder, Colorado, said Obama is in touch with the concerns of Hispanics.

“He was raised by a single mother,” she said. “He knows our struggles.”

If past trends hold, the Pew Hispanic Center estimated that Latinos, who comprise 9 percent of the electorate, would make up only about 6.5 percent of voters in November. There are indications, however, that participation will increase. Fifty- six percent of registered Latinos voted in the primaries, compared with 47 percent in 2004.

Battleground States

The concentration of Hispanics in battleground states such as Colorado, where they account for 12 percent of the vote, makes them a crucial target. In New Mexico, about 40 percent of eligible voters are Latino; they account for 13 percent of the electorate in Nevada and about 14 percent in Florida.

To capture these voters, the Obama campaign announced a $20 million Hispanic voter-mobilization effort in July.

“Hispanic voters are one of the great untapped resources in electoral politics,” said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Both parties “are going to be very cognizant of attracting and keeping these voters.”

Because Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada are battlegrounds and Democrats have increased registration numbers overall, “this is probably your best chance in a long time to see Latino voters be a critical factor in the outcome,” said Eric Juenke, a political scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

McCain Opportunity

Still, the lack of personal connection with Obama may give McCain an opportunity to prevent the Democrats from widening their margin of support with Hispanics, and allow the Republican to match Bush’s 40 percent support.

Even while most Latinos in the focus group favored Obama, many said Americans wouldn’t elect a black president; they also said they were worried about an assassination attempt.

“There are too many closed-minded people,” said Democrat Alex Moreno, 36, of Arvada, Colorado. “They are just going to say `No, we are not going to have a black president.”’

Obama’s choice of running-mate, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, was praised by the participants in the focus group. While running for the Democratic nomination this year, Biden, 65, had questioned Obama’s readiness to be president.

The Biden selection shows Obama is “open to bringing in people who don’t necessarily agree with him,” said Democrat Carlos Gomez, 37 of Littleton, Colorado.

The focus-group voters, while praising McCain’s patriotism and experience, expressed concerns about his age.

“This guy is already forgetting things,” Moreno said.

Popularity: 48% [?]