John McCain never recovered from his uneven response to the economic collapse. Barack Obama pounced, and he never looked back.

By Bob Drogin and Maeve Reston, The Los Angeles Times

Reporting from Phoenix and Washington — On Sept. 21, six days after the stunning collapse of Lehman Bros. Holdings Inc., one of Wall Street’s largest and oldest investment banks, John McCain devoted a total of three sentences to voters’ economic worries in his only campaign event of the day, a speech at a National Guard convention in Baltimore.

Three days later, the Republican presidential nominee pronounced the financial crisis so dire that he needed to suspend his campaign, cancel the first presidential debate and rush back to Washington to help forge a solution to a national emergency.

McCain’s dramatic move not only failed, his baffling shifts in tactics and message backfired so badly he lost his lead in national polls and never recovered. Both sides now say Barack Obama essentially clinched his victory in late September.

“Images of the two candidates changed dramatically,” said David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist. “Obama came across as commanding and knowledgeable, cool, calm. McCain seemed a little bit unsettled, moving from pillar to post.”

As dispirited Republicans sift through the wreckage of Tuesday’s results, many argue that McCain was crippled by public anger at President Bush’s failures at home and abroad. McCain echoed the claim in his concession speech when he said he didn’t know what else he could have done to win.

But if McCain was dealt a bad hand, experts say, he often played it poorly. In decision after decision, he and his aides created problems for themselves and failed to press the advantages they had.

High among them was McCain’s inability to connect with Latino voters.

McCain had hoped Latinos would reward his efforts in Congress to help the nation’s estimated 12 million illegal immigrants get on the path to citizenship. But under pressure from his party’s right wing, McCain had abandoned his own proposals during the primaries and instead stressed increasing border security.

The result: He won support from less than a third of Latinos who voted, far fewer than President Bush did four years ago. The difference helped doom McCain in Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, all states that Bush had won.

Steve Schmidt, one of McCain’s top aides, blamed the Republican Party, not the candidate. The GOP “has done all that it can possibly do to antagonize Latino voters in this country,” he complained.

He called it “one of the great ironies or tragedies” that McCain “wound up being punished by Hispanic voters furious at a party they view as hostile” by “taking it out on the candidate who was their best friend.”

The Palin problem

McCain’s choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate helped him with social conservatives. But her views and her performance in interviews alienated many of the independent and swing voters he most needed, and she became a drag on the ticket.

Palin’s aides blame McCain’s staff for constraining her on the stump and exacerbating her problems. They cited a daily struggle between staffers at headquarters and those on the plane, with little cohesion or communication.

“I don’t know if you can honestly say things went wrong,” said a senior aide to Palin. “I just think they were probably mismanaged.”

Exhibit No. 1: the decision to buy $150,000 in clothes and accessories for Palin during the Republican National Convention. Three fashion consultants showed up, the aide said, and “decided, ‘Well, we’re going to go out and dress you up.’ They were with us three times. By the third time, she did not like them. . . . No one liked these women.”

McCain’s aides, not surprisingly, blame forces outside their control.

Charlie Black, one of McCain’s top advisors, argued that McCain’s tactical missteps, even on the economy, were “not very important” compared with the brutal political environment that any GOP candidate faced.

“We had an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war, a financial crisis, and the press was more against us than at any time in my lifetime,” he said.

The Bush problem
But Obama made sure that voters linked McCain inextricably to Bush and his policies. From the start, Axelrod said, the election always was “going to be about George W. Bush.”

McCain only formulated a strong response in the third presidential debate with Obama, on Oct. 15, when he memorably declared: “I am not George Bush. If you wanted to run against George Bush, you should have run four years ago.”

It was too late. Anxious not to antagonize the core Republican base that still backed Bush, McCain had labeled himself an independent “maverick,” and rarely mentioned Bush’s name on the campaign trail. But he never openly broke with the president.

At the same time, McCain’s campaign tried out and discarded a series of contradictory arguments, never settling on a single compelling narrative.

McCain would tout his four terms in the Senate, but insist that he represented change. He would boast of seeking bipartisanship in Congress, then deliver a roaring attack on congressional Democrats.

Obama’s aides, in turn, argued that McCain’s experience made him appear a creature of Washington. They saw Obama’s campaign, in contrast, as sufficient qualification for most voters in and of itself.

“Campaigns are essentially trials,” Axelrod said. “They’re endurance contests to see who has the stamina and fortitude. If you pass that test, you’ve gone a long way.”

But to prove himself on the world stage, Obama took a weeklong trip to the Middle East, Europe and Afghanistan in July. He met heads of state and spoke to an estimated 200,000 cheering fans in the streets of Berlin. McCain’s team pounced, quickly unveiling an ad that mocked Obama as a “celebrity” like Paris Hilton.

It turned the Democrat’s strength into a weakness. As gas prices soared, McCain went on the offensive, calling for a resumption of offshore drilling. With Obama on the defensive for the first time, McCain began to creep up in polls, taking the lead in early September.

The biggest problem

Then the bottom fell out.

Early on Sept. 15, as Americans were absorbing news of the Lehman Bros. collapse, McCain told a crowd in Jacksonville, Fla., that the “fundamentals of the economy are strong.”

At McCain headquarters in Arlington, Va., an aide interrupted Schmidt in a meeting. Schmidt grabbed the first plane to Florida and, hoping to limit the damage, booked McCain on TV shows, where he tried to reframe his comment as a defense of the American worker.

But the damage was done. McCain compounded his problem by calling for creation of a study group one day and the firing of the Securities and Exchange Commission chief the next, discarding his ideas as quickly as he unveiled them. He appeared unsure and unsteady.

Finally, on Wednesday, Sept. 24, McCain assembled his economic team in New York City. The White House was trying to build support for a $700-billion bailout of financial institutions, and Bush aides were signaling that Republicans would follow McCain’s lead.

McCain’s aides saw two choices — stay out of the negotiations and get blamed if the deal collapsed, or return and try put a more palatable package together.

“Either way, we were in a truly terrible position,” Schmidt said. Returning to Washington at least offered “control over our destiny.”

But McCain’s appearance at the White House meeting proved a disaster. Afterward, Bush began appearing on television, day after day, seeking to calm the nation. McCain’s poll numbers fell almost as fast as the stock market.

“It was devastating,” a senior McCain aide said. “Devastating.”

At every stage, Obama’s speeches, interviews, mailings and paid advertising reinforced the message that McCain, who had voted for 90% of Bush’s policies, essentially represented a third Bush term.

Popularity: 18% [?]

With the election just hours away, voters want to make sure they have everything in order so that their votes will count.

Q: How do I know if I’m registered to vote?
A: To make sure you are registered. Visit www.canivote.org. It will direct you to the registration rolls in your county to make sure you haven’t been purged.

Q: Where am I registered to vote?
A: To find out the closest polling location to your home, check out Google’s 2008 US Voter Map. All you have to do is type in your address.

Q: Can I take off work to vote?
A: Most states require employers to provide time for employees to vote on Election Day. While these laws vary in each state, they generally require employers to give employees time off to vote if the polls aren’t open two or three hours outside of the employee’s regular shift.

Some states require that employers pay employees for time off while they are voting, while others require employees to request time off from their employers in advance.

Q: What should I do if I go to vote and my name is not on the list?
A: In many, but not all states, you can ask for a provisional ballot. If you forget your ID and can’t get home in time to get it, or you aren’t registered for some reason, then you can cast a provisional ballot and argue about it after the election.

Q: Can wearing a T-shirt with a candidate’s likeness prevent me from voting?
A: It’s a first amendment freedom of speech question. Obviously, you can’t campaign for a candidate inside the polls or within a certain number of feet in most states. And the problem is that some states have indeed interpreted that wearing of campaign paraphernalia as being electioneering or campaigning.

To be safe you shouldn’t wear your campaign stuff when you go to vote.

Q: If I am still in line when the polls close, will I be able to get in to vote?
A: If you are in line when the polls close, then you vote. They can’t slam the door in your face.

Q: Do you have to have proof of residency in the state you are voting in?
A: You should bring a photo ID like a driver’s license or state issued ID, which are best. Seven states want it and the others will accept alternate photo ids or forms of identification.

Note: Beware of false flyers like one in Virginia telling voters that because of high turnout Republicans will vote Tuesday and Democrats Wednesday.

Also watch out for inaccurate e-mails out there like one going around telling Barack Obama voters that for their vote to count, after they vote for him they then have to vote straight Democratic on the ballot.

Popularity: 17% [?]

By Mark Halperin , The Los Angeles Times

It’s over. The longest, most intense, most media-saturated presidential campaign in American history has come to an end. Now, as the United States at last selects its next president, it’s all about the wait.

Campaign strategists who have been working 24/7 for months may go see a movie, head for the gym or otherwise kill some time and try to settle their nerves. But sooner or later, they’ll be glued to the TV and computer, working the phones, scanning every report, chasing down any nugget of news.

With history in the balance, you don’t have to be a politico to crave clues to tonight’s results. Here are some tips for those readers who want to follow the action like a pro — some are standard quadrennial rules, some are unique to the particular 2008 puzzle.

Turnout reports. Journalists too have a lot of time to fill today, and this year there will be an obsessive push to assess the turnout. Every indication is that voting rates will be higher (maybe a lot higher) than in recent years. But don’t be fooled by a breathless TV reporter broadcasting live from a swarming polling station, or by a call from your Aunt Betty in Ohio describing an eight-hour wait to cast a ballot. Anecdotal slivers do not necessarily mean turnout is going to be up locally or nationally. Wait for official characterizations from secretaries of state or big-county officials before drawing any conclusions.

Exit poll embargo. For the first time in a presidential election, the consortium of news outlets that tracks the national and key state exit polls is keeping its statisticians and data under a strict quarantine until 5 p.m. EDT (2 p.m. in California).This is meant to prevent early leaks of incomplete, raw data, which could create a misleading impression of the results.

The consortium survey is the only national exit poll, so no one outside a secret and secure location in Manhattan will have any legitimate exit-poll data until the officials there release it. Don’t believe any reports you hear about exit poll numbers before 2 p.m. in Los Angeles.

Early exit poll reporting. Early exit polls and raw exit poll data can be skewed for a variety of reasons. So even once the data get out of quarantine, responsible networks and media websites will produce only limited reports on what can be gleaned. They’ll use the information to identify trends and interesting demographic and attitudinal developments. But flip around your cable TV dial, or click around the Internet, and you can watch some of the less responsible sources use loaded language to hint broadly at the outcome suggested by the early data.

Here’s one important historical insight: Methodological problems such as oversampling or insufficient response in past elections have sometimes falsely skewed early exit polls in favor of Democrats. Remember: The exit poll numbers might be absolutely correct or dead wrong, but either way, the real result may not be set in stone.

Early returns of real votes. Actual vote counts are more reliable, and early results in a few key states could tell us the night’s story. That’s because many of the states with the earliest poll closing times happen to be ones that for generations have been typically Republican strongholds but today are major battlegrounds. Indiana, Virginia and Ohio all have final poll closings by 7:30 p.m. EDT, and Virginia’s election tabulation system has historically been able to accurately count its votes very quickly.

If Barack Obama wins two of these states, John McCain’s narrow path to the White House is effectively blocked — and if the Democrat is winning them easily enough for major media to make swift projections, that’s probably all she wrote. If McCain wins two of the three, he will remain a long shot for victory, but the fight goes on.

If McCain wins them all? As Dan Rather might say, the night could be longer than a teenager’s explanation for how he wrecked the family car.

If Obama wins easily. In 2008, a presidential candidate who gets more than 53% of the popular vote over a broad geographical sweep doesn’t just win the election, he wins a true mandate. The latest polls show that Obama may be poised for such a win. If it comes to pass, don’t lose sight of the potential for Obama coattails as the night goes on. An overall Democratic landslide could mean a potential political realignment in the United States that could last a decade or more.

If it is a close race. It appears that McCain can only win the battle for 270 electoral votes by a whisker, so if the presidential contest is too close to call by 10 p.m. EDT, watch as judges are forced to decide whether to extend polling place hours in areas with long lines at closing time. And, hearkening back to 2000, look for lawyers from both sides to take center stage with talk of recounts and voting irregularities.

Voting irregularities. Before the Florida fiasco of 2000, two things were true: There were a lot of voting problems in U.S. elections, and no one paid much attention to them. Now only the former is true.

In a vast nation with a decentralized system of election administration, there are always going to be discrepancies when ballots are cast and counted. On this election day, there will be more watchdog efforts than ever before, but be careful to separate the inevitable, small-scale mistakes from crucial incidents — such as systemic machine errors in counties in large battleground states or thousands of voters waiting in line when the polls close — that could actually effect the outcome.

As today unfolds, Californians (and many others outside the Eastern time zone) need to remember that even if reliable projections say one candidate has effectively locked up a majority of the electoral votes before you cast your ballot, you should still vote. It’s your civic duty, every vote is equal, and when you consider all the issues and all the races, it really won’t be over until it’s over.

Popularity: 18% [?]

Economic Concerns Boost Democrat

By Krissah Williams Thompson, Washington Post Staff Writer

GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. — The monthly poker night held by members of the Latin-Anglo Alliance here is strictly social. No work. No politics.

It’s a welcome break from the seemingly endless news of the nation’s financial meltdown that has heightened their anxieties about the economy. Jobs in the area are stable, but these poker players are middle-aged and middle-class, with college tuition and retirement to worry about.

Their anxiety mirrors that of other Latinos, who are more likely than other groups to name the economy as their top issue in this election — 60 percent do so, compared with 54 percent of all voters, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. It also helps explain why Sen. John McCain is struggling to win over Hispanics, a group that many thought he would do reasonably well with only months ago.

Polls show Sen. Barack Obama leading McCain 2 to 1 among Hispanics, after being trounced by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton among such voters in the Democratic primaries. (President Bush won 40 percent of their vote in 2004.) More than two-thirds of Hispanics said they trust Obama to handle the economy, compared with 27 percent who named McCain.

Many here also said they remain upset about the ugly immigration debate last year in which many Republicans demanded full-scale deportation of illegal immigrants. Although McCain then favored a more moderate approach that was supported by many Hispanics, he has taken a somewhat harder line in the campaign and has not been able to overcome worries about his party on the issue.

The Hispanic vote could be decisive in Colorado, where the group makes up 12 percent of the electorate. Latino voters throughout the West feel empowered this year, particularly here and in New Mexico and Nevada, where their demographic growth and renewed political engagement have made them a force. The three states went for Bush four years ago but are now tossups or lean toward Obama. Most polls show Obama with a solid lead in Colorado.

In 2004, Bush’s appeal to Latinos helped him win Colorado despite Democrats’ besting Republicans for congressional and statewide offices. The Democratic winners included the Salazar bothers — U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar and U.S. Rep. John Salazar, moderate Democrats who are popular with Latino voters and could help drive support for Obama.

“When you have someone like Bush, who grew up in an environment where he really understood Latinos, it comes across in the way [he talked] to them. It’s an approach,” said Jorge Mursuli, president of Democracia USA, a nonpartisan voter group that registered 138,000 Hispanic voters, including a few thousand in Colorado. “He had a campaign that really understood how to reach the Latinos and how to be culturally competent. He scored big time. That’s not happening now.”

Floyd Ciruli, an independent pollster and political consultant based in Denver, said Obama’s use of strong Hispanic supporters could be a sufficient substitute for his lack of natural appeal because “a goodly number of them are rural conservatives or moderates, traditional in their religious practices, versus your more typical urban Latino who would share the values of the Democratic leadership.” Aside from the Salazars, former Denver mayor Federico Peña and Gov. Bill Richardson of neighboring New Mexico are campaigning for Obama in Colorado.

McCain has tried to reach out with Spanish-language television ads, such as one titled “Riesgo” that calls Obama a risk for small-business owners and employees, and through supporters such as Gilberto Velez, chairman of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference board, who in a news conference last week encouraged Hispanics to vote for McCain because of his stance on abortion, same-sex marriage and other social issues.

In meetings with national Hispanic advocacy groups, McCain has talked about his familiarity with their culture as a resident of the border state of Arizona and has played up his personal ties with Latinos who have served in the military. His campaign has tried to remind Hispanics that he helped craft the failed immigration overhaul that was popular with many in their community. And last week, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was interviewed on Univision, the country’s most popular Spanish-language TV network.

Still, the Republican is gaining no ground with Hispanics in polls.

Beyond the economy, many at the poker tables here attribute that to the bruising immigration debate in which Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo — who represents a suburban Denver district — was among the loudest proponents of deportation. Lydia DeLaRosa, a leader of the Latin-Anglo Alliance, says the immigration raids on a big meatpacking plant 200 miles away in Greeley still infuriate her.

Popularity: 28% [?]

Written by Alex Garcia, San Fernando Valley Sun

New Voters could be the decisive force in this year’s presidential election. At least, that’s the assumption of several experts and studies that have come out recently, showing that in battle states, new voters, primarily made up by immigrants, could tip the scales one way or the other.

“We’ve been discussing this election as a historic election because of the candidates, an AfricanAmerican for president and a woman for vice president, but a third aspect of this is the emergence of this new electorate that provides a greater diversity in American democracy which we haven’t seen,” said Efrain Escobedo, of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO). “This new American electorate has been a pretty potent force and is beginning to reshape the political landscape”.

In particular, Escobedo notes the rise of the Latino voting block, which since last year has been increasingly becoming naturalized and registering to vote.

Their influence will be felt especially in states like Nevada, Florida, Colorado and New Mexico, “Battleground” states where senators Barack Obama and John McCain are fighting for every vote.

“Those states represent 46 electorate votes that could decide this election and those are states where the latino electorate have really been driving the new voter registration,” said Escobedo.

Laura Anduze, civic organizer with the National Council of La Raza (NCLR) agrees with Escobedo.

She noted that in 2004, there were 7.6 million Latinos voters and this year they expect that number to rise beyond 9 million.

“There were a lot of people who became citizens last year with the only intent of voting this year,” said Anduze.

Antonio Gonzalez, president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project (SVREP), this week announced it had registered 126,777 latino voters in 14 states along with four other organizations, puts the immigrant vote impact further in the election.

“This is an historic moment for the Latino electorate,” said González, SVREP President. “We anticipate that Latinos will reach 12 million registrations and cast nearly 10 million votes in November, making certain that our community’s voices will make a difference in the critical upcoming elections. Latinos are concerned about the economy, want to see an end to the war in Iraq, and believe that access to health care, improved public education and legalization of undocumented immigrants are top tier issues.”

The voter registration drive was done in conjunction with the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), the largest and oldest Hispanic organization in the United States; the Mexican American Political Association (MAPA); the National Alliance of Latin American and Caribbean Communities (NALACC); and the Hispanic Federation, the premier Latino federation of community- based organizations in the Northeast U.S.

Among the states targeted were AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, IL, MO, NC, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA and TX, including more than 25,000 in Florida; nearly 8,000 in New Mexico; 5,125 in Arizona and 4,437 in Colorado.

“Increasing the number of registered voters is key to Latinos determining their own destiny,” stated Rosa Rosales, LULAC President. “The voter registration effort is paramount to our ongoing effort to protect and defend the civil rights of the Latino community. The Latino electorate understands that its vote brings representation and resources to neighborhoods and communities that have historically been underrepresented and underserved.”

“These elections are far too important not to have our community participate as full and equal partners. We are proud to be part of this coalition that is helping increase - vote by vote - our voice across the nation,”stated Lillian Rodríguez López, Hispanic Federation President.

Dr. Fernando Guerra, Director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University also agrees new voters, and particularly latinos, could give the edge in the election for Obama, who is getting most of these votes.

“You have pockets of resistance, such as latino republicans and some older generations, but the majority are going for Obama,” he noted.

“McCain was a more appealing candidate than any other wanting the latino voters, he was moderate on immigration, comes from a southwestern state, but because his based pushed him to the right, he alienated latinos and they’re not as enthusiastic to vote for him as they were before,” said Guerra.

However, former U.S. Treasurer RosarioMarin, a noted republican who is now part of governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s cabinet, said people need to look at Sen. McCain’s history to see that his values and positions on issues are more compatible with immigrants’ than Sen. Obama’s.

“He is the only one who has clearly shown a clear and clean trajectory of helping immigrants and has shown an enormous desire for our advancement,” she said. “He has the temperament, the capacity and the experience to be president.”

Marin criticized Sen. Obama’s proposal to “spread the wealth” calling it a “socialist” idea that will not work and that “goes against everything this country stands for.”

She also questioned Obama’s readiness in case of a terrorist attack and said Sen. McCain has risked and dedicated his entire life to provide immigrants with the opportunities they enjoy in this country.

But not so, said Maria Elena Durazo, executive secretary-treasurer of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO and a national co-chair of the Obama campaign.

“There’s not doubt that McCain has turned a lot of latinos for Obama because he changed his position on immigration reform. They saw that he wouldn’t even support his own legislation (Kennedy-McCain). Obama has been very clear. He and senator (ted) Kennedy were the two senators who marched in the demostrations two years ago. He has been very public in his support for immigrant issues.”

She added Sen. Obama also was against the war in Iraq since day one, something that a lot of new voters oppose and has the plan to create jobs.

“There is a strong sentiment and support of Obama, but we have to get them to the polls,” she said, adding that for the past three weeks and until election day, her organization has been doing phone banking.

“We have 170 volunteers Monday through Thursday calling voters in Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and other battleground states making thousands of phone calls, calling union members to encourage them to get out to the polls,” she said.

Popularity: 23% [?]

By David Montgomery, Washington Post Staff Writer

How fitting that the most Latinized presidential campaign season in history enters its final week with the Democratic candidate looking deep into our eyes and carefully pronouncing 65 words in Spanish.

“Compartimos un sueño. . . . Este es el sueño Americano.”

Just two questions about Barack Obama’s new television ad: What is he saying, and to whom is he saying it?

The translation is easy enough: We share a dream. . . . This is the American dream.

But what is he saying, and who gets it? Also, what was the point of buying 30 minutes on Univision last night to run a translated version of his “American Stories” infomercial that simultaneously aired on several English-language networks?

The same can be asked of Republican candidate John McCain, who has aired several commercials with his spoken English translated into Spanish.

Is this just a little bit of linguistic showing off? Most Latino registered voters don’t need to be addressed in Spanish. Those born in the United States tend to speak English fluently, and those naturalized as citizens had to pass an English test. The Pew Hispanic Center reports that 84 percent of Latino voters speak English very well or pretty well.

Also: Nearly a quarter of Latino registered voters speak little or no Spanish at all. Won’t Obama’s and McCain’s messages in Spanish be lost on them?

Maybe not. The politics of language and the language of politics are full of bank shots, meta-messages. Sometimes the language is more meaningful than the words. The language is the music, never mind the lyrics.

“It allows that one-on-one cultural touch between the Latino community and a presidential candidate who simply cannot go shake everybody’s hand,” says Lorena Chambers, a Latina Democratic political consultant with Chambers Lopez & Gaitán.

“When you do something in Spanish, you’re trying to communicate a bigger message than the message you’re ostensibly sending,” says Antonio Tijerino, president of the Hispanic Heritage Foundation. “It resonates. The bigger message is, ‘We care about Latinos.’ ”

But a candidate has to be careful. Latinos, like anybody else, don’t like being talked down to. Fluent Hispanic English speakers are proud of their language mastery. They’re galled by the charge hurled by some in the immigration debate that Latinos can’t or won’t learn English.

“They don’t like to have people assume they speak Spanish, not English,” says Brent Wilkes, executive director of the League of United Latin American Citizens.

But making that assumption is a social misstep between individuals — like goofily breaking into Spanish every time you meet a Latino. That may not be a concern in mass advertising, Wilkes says. “The ad is addressed to everybody. . . . Why watch Univision if you don’t want to see ads in Spanish?”

Complicating matters, in a single Latino family there may be, across generations, diversity in language, citizenship, even immigration status. Family members will put political information in English and Spanish to different uses. Tijerino says he gets most news and advertising from English-language sources, while still glancing at Spanish-language sources. His father and uncles speak English and are registered voters — but their primary sources are in Spanish, secondary in English.

We’ve reached this point after a primary and general election cycle where Spanish has played a bigger role than ever, and the politics of language has seemed ready to explode at any moment.

You can date the new Latinized age — with all its irony and paradox — to the spring of 2007, when Newt Gingrich, not a candidate himself, apologized for saying that anything but English is “the language of living in a ghetto.” To do penance, he went on YouTube — and spoke for several minutes in grammatically flawless Spanish, which he studies assiduously.

There arose the first major Latino presidential primary contender and fluent Spanish speaker, Bill Richardson — who never found a way to let Latino voters know he was Latino without coming off as too Latino. Another contender, Christopher Dodd, gave discourses in his decent Peace Corps Spanish, while Mitt Romney tried some phrases on the trail in Miami that backfired when he inadvertently quoted Fidel Castro’s favorite battle cry.

Meanwhile, on the Hill, the Senate was debating whether English should be the “national” or “official” language.

Politicians have wanted to have it both ways ever since Jackie Kennedy delivered a campaign commercial in Spanish on behalf of her husband in 1960. They have wanted to reach Latinos by any means necessary — but they have not wanted to show weakness in their allegiance to English and “American” culture.

Thus, when Obama does speak of his plan to give illegal immigrants a path to citizenship, he always makes clear it will include a requirement that they learn English.

But this week, he is speaking Spanish. Mano a mano, McCain hasn’t matched Obama’s linguistic feat. But his campaign reacted to the Spanish ad with a statement — in English and Spanish — from Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), who said in part: “This election is about more than beautiful words.”

Obama’s campaign overstated the case when it claimed Obama is “the first presidential candidate” to deliver an ad in Spanish. John Kerry did it in 2004 in an ad created by Chambers’s firm.

Spanish affords one subtlety lacking in English to communicate a candidate’s personal style: Kerry used the formal “su voto” in asking for “your vote,” while Obama has adopted the informal “tu voto” to make the same appeal.

Speaking Spanish is good as far as it goes, say members of the target audience. But there’s more to Latinos than the language of the old countries.

“Thinking you’re going to reach the entire diverse Latino population by doing a Spanish-language advertisement is as naive as thinking that you’re going to connect with all Latinos by saying ‘Happy Cinco de Mayo’ to Peruvians and Nicaraguans,” Tijerino says. “But I do appreciate the effort by Senator Obama.”

Popularity: 16% [?]

WASHINGTON (AFP) — Some nine million US Hispanics are eligible to vote in the November 4 presidential election and both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are pulling out all the stops to gain their support.

Both campaigns have tried to forge a closer relationship with the country’s largest minority group, especially in the key swing states of Florida, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico — places were the outcome could be determined.

Nationally, Latino support for the Republicans reached some 44 percent when President George W. Bush ran for re-election in 2004, when some 7.6 million Hispanics were eligible to vote.

Today only 23 percent of Hispanics support McCain, while two-thirds support Obama, according to a recent Pew Hispanic Center study.

Party loyalty in the swing states however is not always clear.

“There are many Latino voters in these states,” Jorge Mursulli, director of the advocacy group Democracia USA, told AFP. “What’s more, one cannot firmly place these states in either the Republican or Democratic column.”

Mursulli, who leads one of the largest voter registration drives in the country, said the Hispanic population has grown significantly over the past years in those four states.

In Florida, where both campaigns are spending heavily, polls show that Hispanic voters “will be very divided,” Mursulli said.

Attitudes towards Cuba are expected to swing some voters.

Jorge Mas, the head of the fiercely anti-Castro Cuban American National Foundation (CANF) wrote a recent Washington Post opinion piece in which he described current US policy towards Cuba as “at best static and at worst counterproductive.”

Obama’s “forward-looking and proactive approach toward empowering the Cuban people is more in line” with proposals that he outlined “than John McCain’s vow to continue the Bush administration’s policy.”

But like other voters, Hispanics are primarily concerned about the country’s troubled economy, health care and education.

“That does not mean that people are no longer concerned about the war in Iraq,” Mursulli said. “The issue of the war remains very high on the list of Latino priorities.”

Immigration, however, “is the issue that sets Hispanics apart from the rest of the population,” Mursulli said.

Immigration was debated during the primaries, but is so controversial it has been largely ignored by both candidates during the general election campaign.

Proposals to introduce immigration reform, both times supported by McCain, were defeated in the US Congress in 2006 and 2007 in the face of opposition from conservative Republicans.

Since the reform proposal failed, polls show Hispanics increasingly supporting the Democrats. The move coincides with an increase in high-profile roundups of undocumented workers, with thousands arrested by federal authorities since December 2006.

Obama has even recorded three ads in Spanish, the first presidential candidate to do so, said a top Obama aide, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, on Monday.

The 30-second long spots are being broadcast in the four swing states as well as the battleground state of Virginia.

“I ask your vote not just for me and for the Democrats, but to keep alive this (American) dream for you and your children,” Obama says in one spot.

Both candidates have also promised closer ties with Latin America — a region largely forgotten by the Bush administration — but may be hamstrung by the global financial crisis, experts said.

Latin America briefly surfaced in the October 15 debate, in which the McCain chastised Obama for not having traveled south of the border, and for opposing the free trade agreement with Colombia.

Obama, along with other Democrats in the US Congress, opposed the FTA with Colombia because they said they wanted more protections and rights for Colombian workers in the agreement.

Obama also has said that he wants to renegotiate portions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) — signed in 1993, during the Democratic presidency of Bill Clinton — because he wants Mexico to adhere to higher labor and environmental standards.

The next president “should avoid expectations that cannot be fulfilled” concerning closer US interest in Latin America, said Peter DeShazo, who heads the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank.

Peter Hakim, who heads the Inter-American Dialogue think-tank, believes that reviving the sputtering US economy is essential for better ties south of the border. “Getting our economy back in order is terribly important for Latin America,” he said.

Popularity: 25% [?]

Most of the nation is mostly unaware of battle for the Hispanic vote in crucial states. Months on the campaign trail and barely a mention.

Mum also in three nationally televised debates.

But for nearly a month, unbeknownst to much of the country, the two presidential contenders have been slugging away at each other on immigration through Spanish-language advertisements in crucial swing states with growing Latino populations whose votes could sway the election.

The ads, running on Spanish-language television and radio in states such as Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico feature Democratic candidate Barack Obama and Republican nominee John McCain pointing fingers at each other for not having done enough on immigration.

McCain launched the opening salvo by blaming Obama for the collapse of last year’s Senate bill seeking to overhaul the current immigration system.

Put on the defensive by what he deemed a false assault, Obama countered days later with his own Spanish ad linking McCain to the extreme-right Republican wing, widely seen as anti-immigrant.

Read Complete Story

Popularity: 16% [?]

By Tim Gaynor

PHOENIX (Reuters) - Mexican-American laborer Orlando Arenas says he will vote for Barack Obama on November 4 because the Democrat’s story touches his sense of the American Dream.

Gabriella Friddle, a Dallas-based graphics designer from Peru who has lived in America for 25 years and is now a citizen, said she plans to vote for Obama because she likes him.

“I like him very much. I think he’s intelligent and well-educated. And I think he will be good for the country. He is very straightforward and I think he will lead us out of this economic crisis right now,” she said.

When Obama emerged through the Democratic primary process earlier this year, few U.S. Hispanics knew who he was, and those who did, tended to support his principal rival for the party’s presidential nomination, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

But as the campaign for the U.S. presidential election on November 4. draws into its final phase, U.S. Latinos are rallying to the Democratic ticket and appear to be warming to the Illinois senator to whom they once gave the cold shoulder.

Hispanics make up 15 percent of the U.S. population and 9 percent of the electorate. A Pew Hispanic Center poll in July found that two thirds of Latino voters supported Obama over his Republican rival John McCain — a greater edge than at any time in the past decade.

Obama also had strong approval of between 63 percent and 55 percent in the key battleground states of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, while he was tied with McCain in Florida, according to a study by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials released last week.

Earlier this year, many pundits thought Obama faced an uphill task capturing Hispanics’ support for Clinton — whose ties to Latinos date back her husband President Bill Clinton’s eight years in office. Some thought Obama faced further resistance from the bloc as an African-American candidate.

“The reality was that very few Hispanics knew who he was when he started out,” said Arturo Vargas, the executive-director of NALEO’s educational fund.

GETTING TO LIKE OBAMA

In 2004, President George W. Bush won about 40 percent of the Hispanic vote — a Republican record — when he beat Democrat John Kerry. Since then opinion polls showed Republican standing among Latinos had been hurt by an acrimonious national debate on immigration reform.

In his campaign, McCain has pitched to the conservative values, patriotism and entrepreneurial flair of many Hispanics. The Arizona senator still enjoys loyal support among a dwindling minority nationally, and remains in a statistical dead heat with Obama in Florida, with 38 points and 35 points respectively, NALEO found.

Polls and voters alike say Obama’s lead over McCain has built in recent months as concern over the Republican administration’s handling of the economy and the Iraq war have mounted, while misgivings over GOP hard-liner’ support for a crackdown on illegal immigration have lingered.

A survey put out on Thursday of Latino Protestants, 63 percent of whom voted for Bush in 2004, showed a sharp about face. With three weeks to go to election day, a slim majority of 50.4 percent of those questioned in the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference study said they now favored Obama to 33.6 percent for McCain.

Republican unpopularity aside, analysts say Obama has also succeeded in bonding with Hispanics in his own right, beginning with an appearance he made on the popular syndicated Spanish language radio “Piolin Por la Manana” last year, and his subsequent use of the old Latino workers’ chant of “si se puede!” or “yes you can!” in appearances.

“It appeals to them because it’s been used again and again with the farm workers, with other labor movements here in the United States among Latinos,” said Ricardo Ramirez, an assistant professor of political science, American studies and ethnicity at the University of Southern California,

While the Obama campaign has not played up his personal history as the son of a Kenyan father and a U.S. mother, the back story has nevertheless also found a persuasive resonance with second-generation Hispanics.

“His parents probably had the same aspirations that my parents came here for, and that’s the American Dream, a good education, a good job and finding a good home,” said Orlando Arenas, 27, explaining his affinity with Obama as he stood on a busy corner in downtown Phoenix.

“I’m an independent, but I am going to vote for him this time.”

Popularity: 28% [?]

Tyche Hendricks, San Francisco Chronicle Staff Writer

Just a year ago, immigration was a volatile political issue that consumed Congress and ignited passions among Americans on both sides of the debate.

These days the presidential candidates barely mention the topic on the campaign trail.

The nation’s fundamental immigration problems have not been fixed. And with the economy contracting, Americans are likely to feel more discomfort about welcoming immigrants.

But Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama have been all but silent on immigration. That’s partly because their positions are not far apart, but it’s also because both candidates want to duck attacks from their critics.

“It’s such a controversial issue that both sides recognize however many (voters) you gain with your position, you’ll lose almost as many,” said Doris Meissner, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute. “There’s consensus in the country that something needs to be done, but there’s no consensus on what needs to be done.”

The two candidates do have differences on immigration, however, and the way they address the issue says something about their beliefs and approaches to politics.

In 2006, McCain joined Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., to sponsor an immigration overhaul that would have included a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, a temporary guest worker program to admit future immigrants, and tougher workplace and border enforcement. The bill passed the Senate but wasn’t taken up by the House. A similar bill was introduced in 2007 but again failed to pass.

Backing away

In his quest for the Republican presidential nomination, the senator from Arizona backed away from the 2007 bill after being roundly booed by conservative Republicans. Now McCain says he would secure the border before tackling any other element of the plan.

“I have pledged that it would be among my highest priorities to secure our borders first,” McCain told the Conservative Political Action Conference in February.

Obama, in contrast, has stuck to his support for comprehensive immigration overhaul similar to the original McCain-Kennedy bill. He calls for robust enforcement at the border and on the job but also stresses the need to bring undocumented immigrants “out of the shadows.”

Obama adds that the United States can deter illegal immigration by helping strengthen the economy of Mexico, the source of more than half of America’s unauthorized immigrants. McCain has not focused on that approach.

“We should work with Mexico, and they’ve got to take some responsibility to provide jobs for their people,” Obama told a town hall meeting in Los Angeles last October. “We need to make sure there’s economic development there as well as here.”

McCain’s shifting stance on immigration may have cost him some Latino support. By a ratio of 4 to 1, Latino registered voters consider Obama the better candidate for immigrants, according to an August survey by the Pew Hispanic Center.

Skilled workers

Immigration experts see little difference between the candidates on highly skilled immigration.

Barry Chiswick, an economist at the University of Illinois at Chicago, says he believes the U.S. economy needs more high-skilled immigrants, rather than an immigration system that emphasizes family reunification visas. But he doubts either candidate will go there.

“From a politician’s point of view, it would take tremendous courage to say we’re taking in too many relatives and we should take more high-skilled workers,” he said. “Every ethnic constituency wants visas based on kinship.”

The candidates appear to diverge, though, on plans for low-skilled workers, who have few legal avenues to enter the United States but who have found plenty of jobs here in recent years.

McCain endorses a temporary guest-worker program that would respond to labor market demand in the United States and require workers to return to their home countries after a set period.

Obama favors a plan that would ensure full labor rights for temporary workers and green cards for those who choose to stay in the United States, a stance favored by many labor unions to avoid creating two classes of workers.

“Obama’s been clear that you have to first deal with the people who are currently undocumented and provide them a path to citizenship, and then look to see if you still need more workers,” said Maria Echaveste, a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress and an Obama adviser. “A guest worker program needs to put paramount the interests of workers in America before you allow people in.”

Workplace raids

The candidates also appear divided on the issue of immigration raids. Both have called for a crackdown on employers who skirt the law and employ illegal immigrants. But Obama has criticized recent raids for singling out workers rather than employers, while McCain has not.

Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-Carlsbad (San Diego County), who chairs the conservative House immigration caucus, is convinced the Arizona senator will be tougher about enforcement.

“Do the candidates support the raids? Do they believe workplace enforcement is the way? That will be the litmus test,” Bilbray said. “I really believe a President McCain will maintain an effort at cracking down on illegal employers, where I think a President Obama would find reasons not to focus on enforcement.”

Obama must walk a tightrope on the question of immigration raids, Meissner said. “Obviously Obama wants to appeal to Latino voters, and they’re particularly sensitive to that issue. But Obama also has to appeal to working-class voters, white people, who are very sensitive to the question of illegal immigration and the relationship that has to jobs. And they tend to feel strongly about the laws being enforced.”

Chiswick said an electronic workplace verification system, which both candidates support, would eliminate the need for most workplace raids. But the federal government didn’t crack down on employers after a 1986 law made it illegal to hire undocumented workers, and Chiswick doubts the next administration will either.

Support for change

Despite the harsh rhetoric that has flared over immigration during the past few years, some observers believe there is broad-based support among voters for the comprehensive immigration overhaul that both candidates generally favor.

“This is not the third rail of American politics,” said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a Democratic strategy group that found broad support for comprehensive immigration reform in an August poll in four swing states.

Perhaps the biggest determinant of how the next president handles immigration is the condition of the U.S. economy in the coming months. This country has historically welcomed immigrants in times of prosperity and turned them away when times were tough, said Daniel Tichenor, a professor of political science at the University of Oregon.

“It’s a safe bet that both McCain and Obama would be pro-immigration, pro-immigrant presidents,” Tichenor said. “But both are going to have to tread lightly if the economy continues to tank. I don’t know any president who would want to dramatically expand the number of legal (immigrant) admissions during times when we have economic jitters.”

Where McCain and Obama stand on immigration issues

Quotes

McCain: “When we have achieved our border security goal, we must enact and implement the other parts of practical, fair and necessary immigration reform. … We can’t let immigrants break our laws with impunity. We can’t leave our borders undefended. But these people are God’s children.” National Council of La Raza conference, July 14

Obama: “I think it’s time for a president who won’t walk away from something as important as comprehensive reform when it becomes politically unpopular. … We can reconcile our values as a nation of immigrants and a nation of laws.” National Council of La Raza conference, July 13

Border security

McCain: Supports securing borders first with more agents, physical and electronic barriers before tackling immigration reform. Would require governors of border states to certify that the border is secure. Has said “we need a lot more” fencing.

Obama: Supports adding more customs and border agents, infrastructure and technology on U.S. borders and at ports of entry. Has said he doesn’t think a border fence is the best solution.

Workplace immigration enforcement

McCain: Supports an electronic employment verification system that includes secure, biometric documents and accurate government databases. Has said he will prosecute “bad-actor” employers.

Obama: Supports a new employment eligibility verification system and a crackdown on employers that hire illegal immigrants. Has condemned the human toll of immigration raids and emphasized the need to prevent exploitation of undocumented workers.

Legalization of undocumented immigrants

McCain: Advocates extending legal immigration status to undocumented immigrants who learn English, pay a fine and back taxes, pass a citizenship course, and get in line behind other “green card” applicants - but only after the border is secure. Emphasizes prosecuting or deporting criminal immigrants. First supported, then opposed the DREAM Act (Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors) but says he favors expedited legal status for undocumented immigrants brought here as minors.

Obama: Advocates offering legal status to otherwise law-abiding undocumented immigrants if they pay a fine and back taxes, admit they’ve broken the law, learn English and go to the back of the line. Supports the DREAM Act, which offers citizenship to college-bound young people brought to the United States illegally as children.

Future flows of immigrant workers

McCain: Favors a low-skilled temporary worker program that rises and falls with the needs of the economy. Emphasizes workers must return to their home countries afterward. Would offer a small number of green cards for workers who want to become permanent U.S. residents. Favors increasing green cards for highly skilled workers and allowing H-1B visa holders to stay until they get green cards.

Obama: Favors increasing the number of people allowed into the country legally to “meet the demand for jobs that employers cannot fill,” in both highly skilled and low-skilled sectors. Many Obama advisers are leery of a temporary guest worker program; Obama has not addressed it specifically.

Legal immigration system

McCain: Supports eliminating the backlog of immigration applications for family-reunification visas.

Obama: Favors fixing the “dysfunctional bureaucracy” in the legal immigration system, including eliminating backlogs for family-based immigration.

Working with Mexico

McCain: Has supported free trade pacts with Mexico and Central America. Doesn’t focus on economic development as a deterrent to immigration.

Obama: Puts strong emphasis on helping Mexico and Central America develop their economies to decrease illegal immigration. Endorses adding labor and environmental standards to trade agreements.

Popularity: 16% [?]